Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.3% | 33.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.0% | 34.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 74.4% | 25.6% | -5.9 | ✓ (14.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.0% | 44.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 79.3% | 20.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.6% | 24.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.6% | 24.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.8% | 35.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -20 (84-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum * | 38 | 6-16 | 2-7 | 8-12 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Jrue Holiday * | 34 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - | - | |
| Jaylen Brown * | 32 | 11-20 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Derrick White * | 30 | 7-14 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Kristaps Porzingis * | 27 | 5-9 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18 | - | - | |
| Payton Pritchard | 25 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Al Horford | 22 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Sam Hauser | 19 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Luke Kornet | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Oshae Brissett | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 38 | 8-18 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 37 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 33 | 5-13 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 33 | 5-11 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 32 | 5-16 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 31 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Patty Mills | 12 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter