Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 22.5% | 77.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.1% | 84.9% | +9.5 | ✓ (10.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 14.7% | 85.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.4% | 81.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.4% | 81.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Boston Celtics +20 (114-94). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 10-18 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 35 | 8-16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 34 | 4-13 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 28 | 2-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 25 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 25 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Delon Wright | 25 | 6-7 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 15 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 13 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum * | 41 | 7-18 | 1-8 | 8-8 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Jaylen Brown * | 34 | 6-12 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Kristaps Porzingis * | 34 | 7-13 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | - | - | |
| Jrue Holiday * | 33 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Derrick White * | 33 | 6-10 | 4-8 | 4-4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Al Horford | 25 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Payton Pritchard | 24 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Sam Hauser | 13 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - |
* = starter