Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.3% | 55.7% | +1.3 | ✓ (3.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +5 (119-114). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday * | 40 | 6-19 | 2-11 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | - | |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 38 | 12-22 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 30 | - | |
| Brook Lopez * | 38 | 13-23 | 4-7 | 6-6 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 29 | - | |
| Khris Middleton * | 37 | 4-12 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 17 | - | |
| Grayson Allen * | 33 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - | |
| Pat Connaughton | 20 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - | |
| Joe Ingles | 18 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - | |
| Bobby Portis | 12 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| Jevon Carter | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 40 | 19-28 | 3-8 | 15-18 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 56 | 40 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 6-16 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 11 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 28 | 4-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - | |
| Kevin Love * | 22 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 12 | - | |
| Max Strus * | 17 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 30 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 24 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 19 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry | 23 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 14 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - | |
| Cody Zeller | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter