Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.3% | 55.7% | +1.3 | ✓ (20.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +22 (121-99). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday * | 35 | 8-18 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 10 | - | |
| Khris Middleton * | 33 | 8-14 | 3-5 | 4-5 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 22 | - | |
| Brook Lopez * | 29 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - | |
| Grayson Allen * | 27 | 5-10 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | - | |
| Bobby Portis * | 23 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 13 | - | |
| Pat Connaughton | 25 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 15 | - | |
| Joe Ingles | 22 | 2-7 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | - | |
| Jae Crowder | 13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - | |
| Jevon Carter | 12 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| MarJon Beauchamp | 3 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| Meyers Leonard | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Thanasis Antetokounmpo | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 21 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 28 | 12-19 | 4-4 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 22 | - | |
| Max Strus * | 23 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 5 | - | |
| Kevin Love * | 20 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 17 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 32 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 19 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry | 27 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 11 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 23 | 7-9 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 16 | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 19 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - | |
| Cody Zeller | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Udonis Haslem | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter