Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.4% | 62.6% | +2.8 | ✓ (13.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks +16 (138-122). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Strus * | 31 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 28 | 8-12 | 2-4 | 7-10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 25 | 5-8 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 24 | 9-16 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 21 | 6-12 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 28 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 26 | 6-13 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry | 18 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Cody Zeller | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brook Lopez * | 33 | 12-17 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 25 | - | - | |
| Jrue Holiday * | 32 | 10-19 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Grayson Allen * | 31 | 5-11 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Bobby Portis * | 27 | 5-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | - | - | |
| Khris Middleton * | 27 | 6-16 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Pat Connaughton | 25 | 8-12 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Joe Ingles | 25 | 6-7 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Jae Crowder | 15 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jevon Carter | 14 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| MarJon Beauchamp | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Thanasis Antetokounmpo | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter