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2023-04-20

Model Predictions

Model Miami Heat Milwaukee Bucks Spread Result
Elo 45.6% 54.4% - ✓
Bradley-Terry 34.8% 65.2% - ✓
Margin 37.4% 62.6% +2.8 ✓ (13.2 off)
Pythagorean 44.2% 55.8% - ✓
Efficiency 37.1% 62.9% - ✓
Adjusted Efficiency 41.6% 58.4% - ✓
Log Adjusted 41.6% 58.4% - ✓
Points Off/Def 39.7% 60.3% - ✓

Actual: Milwaukee Bucks +16 (138-122). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Miami Heat

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Max Strus * 31 1-4 1-4 1-1 5 1 2 0 4 - -
Jimmy Butler * 28 8-12 2-4 7-10 3 3 2 0 25 - -
Duncan Robinson * 25 5-8 4-6 0-0 5 3 0 0 14 - -
Bam Adebayo * 24 9-16 0-0 0-1 5 1 1 0 18 - -
Gabe Vincent * 21 6-12 4-9 0-1 0 3 0 0 16 - -
Caleb Martin 28 5-8 2-4 3-3 1 6 1 0 15 - -
Victor Oladipo 26 6-13 2-4 1-3 5 1 0 0 15 - -
Kyle Lowry 18 2-5 1-3 0-0 4 3 1 0 5 - -
Haywood Highsmith 12 1-2 0-1 0-0 2 1 2 1 2 - -
Cody Zeller 12 2-2 0-0 0-0 8 3 0 0 4 - -
Kevin Love 11 0-2 0-1 4-4 3 1 1 1 4 - -

Milwaukee Bucks

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Brook Lopez * 33 12-17 0-1 1-1 4 2 2 1 25 - -
Jrue Holiday * 32 10-19 4-10 0-0 5 11 1 0 24 - -
Grayson Allen * 31 5-11 4-8 2-3 2 1 0 0 16 - -
Bobby Portis * 27 5-9 3-4 0-0 15 5 1 2 13 - -
Khris Middleton * 27 6-16 2-5 2-2 6 7 0 0 16 - -
Pat Connaughton 25 8-12 6-10 0-0 4 3 1 1 22 - -
Joe Ingles 25 6-7 5-6 0-0 4 4 2 0 17 - -
Jae Crowder 15 0-4 0-2 0-0 3 1 1 0 0 - -
Jevon Carter 14 1-3 1-3 0-0 2 1 1 0 3 - -
Goran Dragic 3 0-0 0-0 2-2 0 0 0 0 2 - -
MarJon Beauchamp 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 - -
Meyers Leonard 1 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 - -
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 - -

* = starter