Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 37.4% | 62.6% | +2.8 | ✗ (15.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks -13 (117-130). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 42 | 15-27 | 0-1 | 5-8 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 35 | - | - | |
| Max Strus * | 38 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 33 | 5-6 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 10-18 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 19 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 25 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 22 | 5-9 | 4-7 | 4-4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 6 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brook Lopez * | 35 | 4-7 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | - | - | |
| Jrue Holiday * | 34 | 6-18 | 2-9 | 2-2 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Khris Middleton * | 33 | 12-20 | 2-7 | 7-10 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 33 | - | - | |
| Grayson Allen * | 31 | 5-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Bobby Portis | 26 | 9-15 | 0-5 | 3-3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Jevon Carter | 22 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Wesley Matthews | 17 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Joe Ingles | 15 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jae Crowder | 11 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter