Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 49.4% | 50.6% | +0.1 | ✓ (0.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.6% | 49.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks +1 (111-110). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 40 | 8-20 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 33 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Max Strus * | 29 | 7-13 | 5-10 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 22 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 33 | 10-22 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 24 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 17 | 1-6 | 0-5 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 14 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 13 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young * | 40 | 6-14 | 2-6 | 10-12 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Kevin Huerter * | 33 | 5-13 | 1-8 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| De'Andre Hunter * | 31 | 7-13 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Danilo Gallinari * | 24 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| John Collins * | 23 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 31 | 7-17 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Delon Wright | 29 | 6-6 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 24 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | - | - |
* = starter