Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 35.1% | 64.9% | +3.4 | ✗ (13.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -10 (95-105). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 38 | 9-27 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 6 | - |
| Jason Kidd * | 36 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 35 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 33 | 11-16 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 15 | - |
| Tyson Chandler * | 30 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | - |
| J.J. Barea * | 29 | 7-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 10 | - |
| DeShawn Stevenson * | 12 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Ian Mahinmi * | 11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Brian Cardinal | 12 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 41 | 6-16 | 0-4 | 5-7 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 13 | - |
| LeBron James * | 40 | 9-15 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 12 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 38 | 5-12 | 2-7 | 6-9 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 17 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 38 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 17 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 33 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Eddie House * | 21 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Mike Miller | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter