Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 42.8% | 57.2% | +1.6 | ✓ (7.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.4% | 50.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +9 (112-103). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 45 | 8-19 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 15 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 39 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 7-9 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 15 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 34 | 6-12 | 1-2 | 10-12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 20 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 32 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 23 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 23 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 16 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Mike Bibby * | 15 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Juwan Howard * | 5 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Eddie House | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Kidd * | 39 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 16 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 39 | 9-18 | 1-1 | 10-10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 19 | - |
| Tyson Chandler * | 38 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 16 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 34 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 30 | 8-12 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 17 | - |
| J.J. Barea * | 25 | 6-11 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 12 | - |
| DeShawn Stevenson * | 13 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Ian Mahinmi * | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Brian Cardinal | 9 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
* = starter