Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 42.8% | 57.2% | +1.6 | ✓ (1.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.4% | 50.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +3 (86-83). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 45 | 3-11 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 42 | 9-19 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 9 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 39 | 13-20 | 0-2 | 6-9 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 22 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 29 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 28 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 21 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Mike Bibby * | 16 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 14 | 2-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Chandler * | 42 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 24 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 39 | 6-19 | 0-2 | 9-10 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 11 | - |
| Jason Kidd * | 38 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 35 | 6-15 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 25 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 7 | - |
| DeShawn Stevenson * | 25 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - |
| J.J. Barea * | 21 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Brendan Haywood * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Brian Cardinal | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Peja Stojakovic | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter