Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 35.1% | 64.9% | +3.4 | ✗ (5.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -2 (93-95). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 42 | 10-22 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 13 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 40 | 9-14 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 16 | - |
| Tyson Chandler * | 38 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 | - |
| Jason Kidd * | 37 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 31 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 11 | - |
| DeShawn Stevenson * | 22 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | - |
| J.J. Barea * | 14 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Brendan Haywood * | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Peja Stojakovic | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Brian Cardinal | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 42 | 13-20 | 2-7 | 8-12 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 30 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 39 | 4-16 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | - |
| LeBron James * | 39 | 8-15 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 17 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 29 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 26 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 24 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 2-4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Mike Bibby * | 22 | 5-8 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 15 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
* = starter