Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.1% | 64.9% | +3.4 | ✓ (4.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +8 (92-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 40 | 7-18 | 1-2 | 12-12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 17 | - |
| Jason Kidd * | 36 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 35 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 17 | - |
| Tyson Chandler * | 33 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 32 | 3-10 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | - |
| J.J. Barea * | 18 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | - |
| DeShawn Stevenson * | 14 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Peja Stojakovic * | 14 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Brendan Haywood * | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 45 | 9-16 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 22 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 38 | 5-18 | 0-0 | 9-12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 38 | 9-19 | 2-4 | 2-5 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 18 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 29 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 28 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 20 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Mike Bibby * | 14 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
* = starter