Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 31.3% | 68.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.7% | 64.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 25.4% | 74.6% | +5.9 | ✓ (6.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 36.7% | 63.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +12 (117-105). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 39 | 11-20 | 1-2 | 12-13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 25 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 38 | 7-18 | 3-8 | 4-6 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 10 | - |
| Jason Kidd * | 37 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Antoine Wright * | 30 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 11 | - |
| J.J. Barea * | 19 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Brandon Bass * | 16 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| James Singleton * | 13 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Josh Howard * | 6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Ryan Hollins | 14 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Matt Carroll | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Gerald Green | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmelo Anthony * | 42 | 8-21 | 1-8 | 8-9 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 15 | - |
| Chauncey Billups * | 38 | 5-12 | 4-9 | 4-4 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 18 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 34 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 9-13 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 21 | - |
| Kenyon Martin * | 28 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 25 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 14 | - |
| JR Smith * | 24 | 6-10 | 3-7 | 6-7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 18 | - |
| Anthony Carter * | 20 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 15 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Linas Kleiza * | 6 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Jason Hart | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Johan Petro | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Renaldo Balkman | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter