Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.9% | 60.1% | +2.3 | ✓ (6.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +9 (99-90). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan * | 41 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 11-18 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 28 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 41 | 18-29 | 2-5 | 5-8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 43 | 24 | - |
| Michael Finley * | 36 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Bruce Bowen * | 31 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 21 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Ime Udoka * | 19 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - |
| Roger Mason Jr. * | 17 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
| George Hill * | 14 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Drew Gooden * | 8 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Kurt Thomas | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 40 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 | - |
| Jason Kidd * | 39 | 4-10 | 3-7 | 6-6 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 23 | - |
| Josh Howard * | 35 | 7-14 | 3-6 | 11-13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 16 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 32 | 3-17 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -4 | - |
| J.J. Barea * | 24 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 24 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Ryan Hollins * | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | - |
| Brandon Bass * | 11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Antoine Wright * | 10 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - |
| James Singleton | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter