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2009-04-28

Model Predictions

Model Chicago Bulls Boston Celtics Spread Result
Elo 43.0% 57.0% - โœ“
Bradley-Terry 21.1% 78.9% - โœ“
Margin 14.0% 86.0% +10.0 โœ“ (8.0 off)
Pythagorean 38.5% 61.5% - โœ“
Efficiency 20.0% 80.0% - โœ“
Adjusted Efficiency 23.4% 76.6% - โœ“
Log Adjusted 23.3% 76.7% - โœ“
Points Off/Def 29.4% 70.6% - โœ“

Actual: Boston Celtics +2 (106-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Chicago Bulls

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Ben Gordon * 50 6-21 3-10 11-12 3 6 0 1 1 26 14 -
John Salmons * 49 5-15 2-5 5-6 5 3 1 1 1 17 11 -
Derrick Rose * 45 7-16 0-1 0-0 8 6 3 1 6 14 10 -
Joakim Noah * 42 4-9 0-0 3-4 17 1 1 0 0 11 21 -
Kirk Hinrich * 30 6-12 3-6 4-4 4 0 1 1 1 19 12 -
Tyrus Thomas * 27 4-8 0-0 4-4 8 0 1 2 1 12 14 -
Brad Miller * 17 2-4 1-1 0-2 4 2 0 0 3 5 4 -
Lindsey Hunter 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -

Boston Celtics

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Paul Pierce * 50 11-22 1-6 3-5 7 1 2 1 2 26 13 -
Rajon Rondo * 49 12-22 2-2 2-4 8 11 2 0 4 28 23 -
Kendrick Perkins * 48 7-13 0-0 2-4 19 2 1 7 2 16 30 -
Glen Davis * 40 7-11 0-0 7-8 6 3 0 0 0 21 19 -
Ray Allen * 26 3-8 2-4 2-3 1 2 0 1 2 10 4 -
Tony Allen * 17 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 -
Stephon Marbury * 12 1-5 1-1 0-0 1 2 0 0 0 3 1 -
Brian Scalabrine * 10 1-4 0-2 0-0 1 2 0 0 0 2 1 -
Eddie House * 9 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -

* = starter