Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.0% | 41.0% | -0.2 | ✓ (2.8 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 26.1% | 73.9% | +5.7 | ✗ (8.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.7% | 62.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.7% | 62.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -3 (92-95). Ratings: 2005-06 season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 45 | 10-18 | 0-0 | 16-21 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 35 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 40 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 14 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 33 | 6-17 | 0-6 | 2-3 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 30 | 1-7 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 30 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | - |
| James Posey * | 25 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 17 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning * | 14 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Shandon Anderson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 47 | 10-22 | 1-2 | 8-8 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 25 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 43 | 7-25 | 2-11 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | -3 | - |
| Josh Howard * | 30 | 5-16 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Jerry Stackhouse * | 29 | 5-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Devin Harris * | 25 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 24 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | - |
| Marquis Daniels * | 18 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - |
| DeSagana Diop * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Adrian Griffin | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| DJ Mbenga | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter