Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 35.2% | 64.8% | +3.4 | ✓ (2.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +1 (101-100). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Howard * | 50 | 8-17 | 0-3 | 9-11 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 18 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 50 | 13-23 | 4-9 | 5-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 15 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 49 | 8-19 | 0-4 | 4-5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | - |
| Devin Harris * | 33 | 2-12 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -3 | - |
| DeSagana Diop * | 20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 19 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | - |
| Adrian Griffin * | 15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Keith Van Horn * | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Marquis Daniels | 13 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| DJ Mbenga | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 50 | 11-28 | 0-2 | 21-25 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 43 | 23 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 47 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 2-12 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 18 | - |
| James Posey * | 44 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 30 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 29 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 26 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 26 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Shandon Anderson | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
* = starter