Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 35.2% | 64.8% | +3.4 | ✓ (20.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +24 (98-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 41 | 2-14 | 1-5 | 11-13 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 9 | - |
| Josh Howard * | 35 | 1-8 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 32 | 8-18 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | -2 | - |
| Jerry Stackhouse * | 30 | 6-18 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Devin Harris * | 27 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - |
| DeSagana Diop * | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Adrian Griffin * | 16 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Darrell Armstrong | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Marquis Daniels | 4 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Keith Van Horn | 4 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Josh Powell | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Walker * | 39 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 39 | 13-23 | 2-5 | 8-9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 20 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 31 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 29 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 5-10 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 24 | - |
| James Posey * | 26 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 17 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Shandon Anderson | 19 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Jason Kapono | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Michael Doleac | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter