Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 35.2% | 64.8% | +3.4 | ✓ (1.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +2 (98-96). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 44 | 9-20 | 2-7 | 10-12 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 15 | - |
| Josh Howard * | 42 | 8-13 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 14 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 35 | 7-14 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Jerry Stackhouse * | 31 | 1-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 29 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 19 | - |
| Devin Harris * | 18 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Adrian Griffin * | 14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | - |
| DeSagana Diop * | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Keith Van Horn * | 8 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Marquis Daniels * | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 43 | 14-26 | 1-2 | 13-18 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 32 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 37 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 19 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 35 | 6-17 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 34 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 2 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 34 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | - |
| James Posey * | 27 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 19 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning * | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter