Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.1% | 70.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.4% | 58.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.1% | 64.9% | +3.4 | ✓ (2.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +1 (98-97). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 44 | 13-22 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 21 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 43 | 6-14 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 6 | - |
| Josh Howard * | 36 | 7-12 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Jerry Stackhouse * | 32 | 4-12 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Devin Harris * | 31 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 4 | - |
| DeSagana Diop * | 24 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 16 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Marquis Daniels * | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Keith Van Horn | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| DJ Mbenga | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan * | 44 | 13-19 | 0-0 | 10-15 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 34 | - |
| Michael Finley * | 43 | 5-8 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Manu Ginobili * | 39 | 6-13 | 1-3 | 5-8 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 36 | 11-24 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 5 | - |
| Bruce Bowen * | 33 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Brent Barry * | 17 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Nick Van Exel * | 13 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Robert Horry * | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
* = starter