Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Golden State Warriors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.9% | 62.1% | +1.2 | ✓ (18.8 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 33.4% | 66.6% | +7.6 | ✓ (12.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Golden State Warriors +20 (120-100). Ratings: 2026-27 ratings to date (they include this game).
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell * | 37 | 9-18 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 10 | -12.3 |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 7-12 | 0-2 | 4-7 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 18 | -5.4 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 31 | 7-13 | 1-5 | 5-7 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 21 | -18.2 |
| Klay Thompson * | 23 | 3-10 | 2-7 | 3-3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 3 | -7.5 |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 21 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -0.3 |
| Pelle Larsson | 29 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 7 | -13.0 |
| Ryan Conwell | 29 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 10 | -7.4 |
| Bobby Portis Jr. | 14 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3.9 |
| Nikola Jović | 12 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3.1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 4 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -2.7 |
| Dru Smith | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2.0 |
| Myron Gardner | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Nick Richards | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 |
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski * | 31 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 11 | +3.2 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg * | 30 | 6-14 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 19 | -4.0 |
| Draymond Green * | 27 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 14 | +10.2 |
| Stephen Curry * | 27 | 9-19 | 6-12 | 5-5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 16 | +16.0 |
| Will Richard * | 16 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | -7.0 |
| Georges Niang | 22 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +14.5 |
| Brandon Williams | 20 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +5.8 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 17 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | +7.6 |
| Al Horford | 17 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | +17.1 |
| Charles Bassey | 14 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | +7.9 |
| Gary Payton II | 10 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3.8 |
| Malevy Leons | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Graham Ike | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.9 |
| LJ Cryer | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.9 |
* = starter