Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Los Angeles Lakers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.1% | 78.9% | +6.6 | ✓ (14.4 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 22.7% | 77.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.1% | 72.9% | +10.9 | ✓ (10.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 28.1% | 71.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Los Angeles Lakers +21 (138-117). Ratings: 2026-27 ratings to date (they include this game).
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 34 | 10-17 | 0-3 | 10-15 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 28 | -0.7 |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 5-7 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 20 | -14.5 |
| Davion Mitchell * | 29 | 5-5 | 4-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 17 | -7.1 |
| Klay Thompson * | 26 | 7-11 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 9 | -15.7 |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 23 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | -22.1 |
| Pelle Larsson | 29 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 5 | +4.9 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 19 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | +4.7 |
| Bobby Portis Jr. | 18 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +0.7 |
| Dru Smith | 10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -0.8 |
| Ryan Conwell | 8 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -3.7 |
| Nikola Jović | 6 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -5.4 |
| Myron Gardner | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Nick Richards | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.2 |
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Dončić * | 35 | 14-24 | 6-15 | 8-10 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 42 | 38 | +20.4 |
| Austin Reaves * | 34 | 10-15 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 14 | +16.5 |
| Walker Kessler * | 32 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 20 | +10.5 |
| Jake LaRavia * | 25 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8 | +12.8 |
| Matisse Thybulle * | 18 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +12.0 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 27 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +4.1 |
| Quentin Grimes | 22 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | -0.1 |
| Ziaire Williams | 15 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | -6.6 |
| Collin Sexton | 15 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | -4.2 |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -3.3 |
| Bronny James | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Cameron Carr | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Jaden Hardy | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Lawson Lovering | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.1 |
* = starter