Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.0% | 60.0% | +2.7 | ✗ (14.7 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 45.0% | 55.0% | +2.2 | ✗ (14.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks -12 (117-129). Ratings: 2026-27 ratings to date (they include this game).
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell * | 34 | 5-12 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +9.4 |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 8-16 | 0-1 | 8-9 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 20 | +24.0 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 30 | 11-18 | 0-2 | 2-5 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 27 | -4.7 |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 29 | 6-9 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 14 | +7.1 |
| Klay Thompson * | 17 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2.0 |
| Pelle Larsson | 30 | 6-12 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 18 | +11.0 |
| Bobby Portis Jr. | 23 | 5-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 15 | +7.9 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 21 | 6-10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 8 | -3.6 |
| Dru Smith | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +3.1 |
| Nikola Jović | 7 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | +4.3 |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson * | 36 | 4-12 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 18 | -24.1 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker * | 32 | 8-18 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 8 | +5.8 |
| Onyeka Okongwu * | 31 | 5-10 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | -2.0 |
| Dyson Daniels * | 27 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | -16.9 |
| CJ McCollum * | 19 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | -8.9 |
| Kingston Flemings | 28 | 9-12 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 21 | -4.0 |
| Luguentz Dort | 24 | 3-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | -0.3 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 23 | 4-11 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | -1.5 |
| Jock Landale | 16 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 7 | -11.1 |
* = starter