Model Predictions
| Model | Cleveland Cavaliers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.0% | 62.0% | +3.2 | ✓ (8.8 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 51.7% | 48.3% | -0.7 | ✗ (12.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 59.1% | 40.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.9% | 48.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat +12 (133-121). Ratings: 2026-27 ratings to date (they include this game).
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden * | 34 | 5-13 | 2-8 | 8-8 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 23 | -9.2 |
| Donovan Mitchell * | 32 | 9-21 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 12 | -21.1 |
| Jarrett Allen * | 31 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 15 | -8.0 |
| Peyton Watson * | 30 | 2-10 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | -6.8 |
| Jaylon Tyson * | 29 | 6-11 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 10 | -14.7 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 27 | 7-9 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 21 | -2.1 |
| Meleek Thomas | 17 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | -0.9 |
| Thomas Bryant | 16 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 3-5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | -5.5 |
| Mario Hezonja | 9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1.6 |
| Craig Porter Jr. | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1.5 |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 38 | 13-19 | 2-3 | 9-10 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 35 | +25.8 |
| Davion Mitchell * | 38 | 7-14 | 3-7 | 5-6 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 30 | +24.3 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 31 | 15-20 | 1-2 | 6-11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 25 | +4.5 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 20 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -1.5 |
| Myron Gardner * | 19 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1.4 |
| Ryan Conwell | 32 | 6-12 | 4-9 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 13 | +8.9 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 31 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | +11.0 |
| Bobby Portis Jr. | 15 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1.5 |
| Simone Fontecchio | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +12.3 |
| Dru Smith | 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -10.9 |
* = starter