Model Predictions
| Model | Toronto Raptors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.2% | 54.8% | +1.1 | ✗ (11.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -10 (96-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Ingram * | 37 | 9-19 | 5-7 | 5-5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 16 | - |
| Immanuel Quickley * | 34 | 6-12 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Scottie Barnes * | 32 | 8-16 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 18 | - |
| Jakob Poeltl * | 29 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Ochai Agbaji * | 21 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Jamal Shead | 23 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 18 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Gradey Dick | 15 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 14 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 12 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell * | 34 | 5-15 | 2-7 | 8-10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 9 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 5-8 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 18 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 32 | 4-12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 31 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio * | 26 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 29 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Dru Smith | 20 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 19 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 13 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter