Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.2% | 69.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.6% | 58.4% | +1.9 | ✓ (1.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +3 (128-125). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant * | 44 | 8-14 | 2-3 | 7-8 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 24 | - |
| Jabari Smith Jr. * | 43 | 6-11 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Amen Thompson * | 43 | 5-13 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 | - |
| Alperen Sengun * | 42 | 14-27 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 25 | - |
| Josh Okogie * | 27 | 7-9 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | - |
| Reed Sheppard | 31 | 5-17 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | - |
| Steven Adams | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Aaron Holiday | 10 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Clint Capela | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray * | 43 | 9-17 | 3-5 | 14-15 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 23 | - |
| Cameron Johnson * | 43 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Nikola Jokić * | 42 | 13-27 | 5-9 | 8-11 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 36 | - |
| Spencer Jones * | 40 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Peyton Watson * | 5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 39 | 4-10 | 2-8 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Bruce Brown | 27 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | - |
| Jonas Valančiūnas | 13 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Zeke Nnaji | 8 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter