Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Hawks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | β |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | β |
| Margin | 40.0% | 60.0% | +2.2 | β (23.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | β |
| Efficiency | 38.7% | 61.3% | - | β |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | β |
| Log Adjusted | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | β |
| Points Off/Def | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | β |
Actual: Miami Heat +26 (143-117). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asa Newell * | 38 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 16 | - |
| Keaton Wallace * | 32 | 2-13 | 1-8 | 3-4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Corey Kispert * | 28 | 7-12 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 12 | - |
| Zaccharie Risacher * | 23 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 13 | - |
| Tony Bradley * | 21 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| RayJ Dennis | 26 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | - |
| Keshon Gilbert | 25 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Buddy Hield | 21 | 12-18 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 19 | - |
| Christian Koloko | 21 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 29 | 11-18 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 25 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 29 | 6-9 | 4-5 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 25 | 1-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 25 | 5-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 22 | 2-9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 25 | 6-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 25 | 12-17 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 15 | - |
| Norman Powell | 22 | 8-17 | 3-7 | 6-6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 13 | - |
| Kasparas JakuΔionis | 19 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Trevor Keels | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Jahmir Young | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Vladislav Goldin | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
* = starter