Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | β |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | β |
| Margin | 38.7% | 61.3% | +2.5 | β (11.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | β |
| Efficiency | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | β |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | β |
| Log Adjusted | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | β |
| Points Off/Def | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | β |
Actual: Toronto Raptors +14 (128-114). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 9-14 | 2-4 | 4-5 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 31 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 37 | 7-9 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 17 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 32 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 28 | 6-12 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 21 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 24 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Norman Powell | 16 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 3-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 11 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 10 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Kasparas JakuΔionis | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Vladislav Goldin | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Trevor Keels | 3 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Jahmir Young | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Ingram * | 36 | 13-23 | 2-3 | 10-11 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 29 | - |
| RJ Barrett * | 34 | 6-15 | 1-5 | 9-10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 18 | - |
| Scottie Barnes * | 24 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Immanuel Quickley * | 23 | 4-10 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Jakob Poeltl * | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 24 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 22 | 7-7 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 21 | - |
| Jamal Shead | 21 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 18 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| A.J. Lawson | 3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Gradey Dick | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jonathan Mogbo | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Alijah Martin | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jamison Battle | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
* = starter