Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | β |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | β |
| Margin | 38.7% | 61.3% | +2.5 | β (23.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | β |
| Efficiency | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | β |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | β |
| Log Adjusted | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | β |
| Points Off/Def | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | β |
Actual: Toronto Raptors +26 (121-95). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 2-13 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 32 | 8-13 | 4-7 | 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 14 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 30 | 5-8 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 16 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 26 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -1 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 23 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 26 | 4-12 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Norman Powell | 23 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 3 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 17 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | - |
| Kasparas JakuΔionis | 12 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Vladislav Goldin | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Trevor Keels | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 2 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett * | 31 | 7-16 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 9 | - |
| Brandon Ingram * | 29 | 9-16 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 15 | - |
| Scottie Barnes * | 29 | 10-16 | 2-2 | 3-4 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 23 | - |
| Jakob Poeltl * | 25 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 15 | - |
| Immanuel Quickley * | 17 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | - |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 26 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Jamal Shead | 23 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | - |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 22 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 19 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Jonathan Mogbo | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Trayce Jackson-Davis | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jamison Battle | 2 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| A.J. Lawson | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Gradey Dick | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
* = starter