Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.7% | 38.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 60.4% | 39.6% | -2.3 | ✗ (4.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.1% | 45.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.1% | 45.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +2 (136-134). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephon Castle * | 40 | 9-18 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 12 | - |
| De'Aaron Fox * | 40 | 7-19 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 2 | - |
| Devin Vassell * | 39 | 6-14 | 3-8 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Victor Wembanyama * | 39 | 8-17 | 2-6 | 16-17 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 47 | - |
| Julian Champagnie * | 33 | 6-12 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Dylan Harper | 20 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Keldon Johnson | 17 | 3-10 | 0-6 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | - |
| Harrison Barnes | 16 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Luke Kornet | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - |
| Carter Bryant | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray * | 45 | 6-13 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Nikola Jokić * | 43 | 13-25 | 1-5 | 13-15 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 40 | 39 | - |
| Aaron Gordon * | 41 | 7-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Christian Braun * | 39 | 7-16 | 5-11 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 19 | - |
| Cameron Johnson * | 39 | 6-11 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 16 | - |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 26 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Bruce Brown | 11 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Julian Strawther | 11 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Jonas Valančiūnas | 5 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Tyus Jones | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter