Model Predictions
| Model | Washington Wizards | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 5.0% | 95.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.9% | 82.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 5.7% | 94.3% | +15.4 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 22.7% | 77.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 13.3% | 86.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 17.9% | 82.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 17.9% | 82.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.3% | 77.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +16 (152-136). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Washington Wizards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Riley * | 36 | 12-17 | 2-4 | 5-6 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 24 | - |
| Bub Carrington * | 26 | 4-13 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Bilal Coulibaly * | 25 | 5-13 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Tre Johnson * | 25 | 5-13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | - |
| Anthony Gill * | 21 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Sharife Cooper | 25 | 6-10 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 16 | - |
| Jaden Hardy | 24 | 7-15 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 8 | - |
| Justin Champagnie | 20 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 16 | - |
| Jamir Watkins | 18 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Julian Reese | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - |
| Leaky Black | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins * | 26 | 7-11 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 16 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 25 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 24 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 6-7 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 23 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 23 | 6-10 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio * | 18 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 35 | 10-15 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 24 | 36 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 32 | 12-18 | 1-2 | 7-7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 20 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 27 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 4-6 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 12 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Dru Smith | 12 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter