Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 62.9% | 37.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.1% | 35.9% | -3.2 | ✓ (14.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 68.1% | 31.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.9% | 45.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -18 (129-147). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum * | 37 | 9-21 | 4-13 | 3-4 | 18 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 33 | - |
| Jaylen Brown * | 37 | 17-29 | 4-10 | 5-7 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 23 | - |
| Derrick White * | 34 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Neemias Queta * | 33 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 26 | - |
| Sam Hauser * | 28 | 9-11 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 17 | - |
| Payton Pritchard | 31 | 5-9 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Baylor Scheierman | 17 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Luka Garza | 14 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Jordan Walsh | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Max Shulga | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Hugo González | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell * | 40 | 8-15 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 15 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 40 | 5-15 | 4-10 | 4-4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 11 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 37 | 7-13 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 16 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 10-21 | 5-10 | 4-8 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 19 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 32 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 14 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 29 | 7-16 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 12 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 4 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Dru Smith | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter