Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Indiana Pacers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 74.0% | 26.0% | - | β |
| Bradley-Terry | 71.3% | 28.7% | - | β |
| Margin | 80.6% | 19.4% | -7.8 | β (24.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 64.2% | 35.8% | - | β |
| Efficiency | 75.7% | 24.3% | - | β |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 71.1% | 28.9% | - | β |
| Log Adjusted | 71.1% | 28.9% | - | β |
| Points Off/Def | 62.2% | 37.8% | - | β |
Actual: Indiana Pacers +17 (135-118). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins * | 37 | 5-14 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 36 | 12-22 | 5-13 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 16 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 35 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 35 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 17 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 6-16 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 25 | 7-17 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 15 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Kasparas JakuΔionis | 12 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 7 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nembhard * | 36 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Pascal Siakam * | 31 | 11-24 | 3-8 | 5-7 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 20 | - |
| Quenton Jackson * | 20 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Jalen Slawson * | 16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Ethan Thompson * | 9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Kobe Brown | 33 | 7-11 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 18 | - |
| Ben Sheppard | 23 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Micah Potter | 20 | 7-9 | 5-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 15 | - |
| T.J. McConnell | 18 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 18 | - |
| Jay Huff | 16 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Obi Toppin | 14 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - |
* = starter