Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Cleveland Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.1% | 65.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.2% | 65.8% | +3.6 | ✓ (17.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 40.1% | 59.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cleveland Cavaliers +21 (149-128). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 31 | 4-13 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 3-14 | 1-8 | 7-8 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 19 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 25 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 24 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 19 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Pelle Larsson | 25 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 21 | 9-13 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 10 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 20 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 19 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 9 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 6 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell * | 30 | 1-10 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Evan Mobley * | 29 | 10-15 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 22 | - |
| James Harden * | 29 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 7-7 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 26 | - |
| Sam Merrill * | 26 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Jarrett Allen * | 18 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 19 | - |
| Keon Ellis | 24 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Max Strus | 22 | 10-14 | 8-11 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 23 | - |
| Dennis Schröder | 19 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Thomas Bryant | 14 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | - |
| Tyrese Proctor | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Nae'Qwan Tomlin | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Riley Minix | 4 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 4 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Olivier Sarr | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
* = starter