Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Cleveland Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.1% | 65.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 34.2% | 65.8% | +3.6 | ✗ (20.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 40.1% | 59.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cleveland Cavaliers -17 (103-120). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell * | 33 | 7-12 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 6-19 | 1-9 | 4-5 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 16 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 31 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 30 | 6-11 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 23 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Pelle Larsson | 34 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 7-7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 20 | 5-5 | 3-3 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 24 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 19 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 13 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden * | 42 | 4-10 | 3-9 | 7-7 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 20 | - |
| Keon Ellis * | 36 | 5-12 | 1-7 | 6-6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 10 | - |
| Donovan Mitchell * | 33 | 12-22 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 13 | - |
| Evan Mobley * | 30 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Sam Merrill * | 28 | 6-13 | 4-10 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 8 | - |
| Dennis Schröder | 27 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Nae'Qwan Tomlin | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Thomas Bryant | 16 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Tyrese Proctor | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter