Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 75.9% | 24.1% | - | β |
| Bradley-Terry | 71.9% | 28.1% | - | β |
| Margin | 70.9% | 29.1% | -4.9 | β (20.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | β |
| Efficiency | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | β |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | β |
| Log Adjusted | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | β |
| Points Off/Def | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | β |
Actual: Miami Heat -25 (111-136). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox * | 28 | 5-13 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Victor Wembanyama * | 26 | 11-22 | 1-7 | 3-3 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 26 | - |
| Stephon Castle * | 22 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 9-10 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 21 | - |
| Devin Vassell * | 21 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Julian Champagnie * | 21 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Dylan Harper | 24 | 9-14 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 18 | - |
| Keldon Johnson | 23 | 7-14 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 13 | - |
| Harrison Barnes | 21 | 4-8 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Luke Kornet | 19 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | - |
| Carter Bryant | 18 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Kelly Olynyk | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Bismack Biyombo | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Lindy Waters III | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 5-17 | 2-10 | 6-6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 9 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 26 | 6-11 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 22 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 22 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 19 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Norman Powell | 29 | 7-18 | 4-11 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 5 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 22 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Kasparas JakuΔionis | 22 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 19 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 18 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
* = starter