Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 8.7% | 91.3% | +10.7 | ✗ (12.7 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 15.0% | 85.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 13.0% | 87.0% | +10.5 | ✗ (12.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 19.9% | 80.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 22.0% | 78.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 21.9% | 78.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.8% | 74.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Orlando Magic -2 (126-128). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nesmith * | 35 | 6-11 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 12 | - |
| Andrew Nembhard * | 34 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 23 | - |
| Jarace Walker * | 33 | 7-13 | 2-5 | 4-5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 13 | - |
| Pascal Siakam * | 33 | 13-26 | 2-5 | 9-9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 20 | - |
| Jay Huff * | 27 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Micah Potter | 20 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| T.J. McConnell | 19 | 6-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 | - |
| Ben Sheppard | 18 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Obi Toppin | 16 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero * | 36 | 13-27 | 4-9 | 9-12 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 18 | - |
| Tristan da Silva * | 34 | 9-16 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 15 | - |
| Desmond Bane * | 32 | 7-15 | 1-5 | 2-3 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 15 | - |
| Wendell Carter Jr. * | 28 | 7-11 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Jevon Carter * | 23 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Jamal Cain | 22 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Goga Bitadze | 19 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 | - |
| Jase Richardson | 18 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Jett Howard | 15 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Noah Penda | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter