Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.4% | 72.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.8% | 66.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.4% | 68.6% | +4.3 | ✓ (3.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 31.5% | 68.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Houston Rockets +1 (123-122). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 45 | 12-21 | 2-4 | 6-8 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 37 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 38 | 10-22 | 2-9 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 14 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio * | 37 | 8-12 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 16 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 37 | 6-15 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 31 | 7-12 | 2-3 | 3-5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 13 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 20 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 14 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Dru Smith | 7 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 3 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. * | 39 | 4-13 | 2-8 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Amen Thompson * | 37 | 10-17 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 27 | - |
| Kevin Durant * | 36 | 9-17 | 5-9 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | - |
| Reed Sheppard * | 36 | 8-12 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 2 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 31 | - |
| Alperen Sengun * | 32 | 9-13 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 18 | - |
| Tari Eason | 19 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | - |
| Dorian Finney-Smith | 13 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - |
| Aaron Holiday | 13 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Jae'Sean Tate | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Josh Okogie | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
* = starter