Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Lakers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 40.8% | 59.2% | +2.0 | ✗ (10.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 40.7% | 59.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -8 (126-134). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves * | 39 | 5-12 | 2-7 | 6-10 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Luka Dončić * | 37 | 18-30 | 9-17 | 15-19 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 60 | 43 | - |
| LeBron James * | 37 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 15 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 29 | - |
| Deandre Ayton * | 29 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Marcus Smart * | 27 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 8-9 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Jaxson Hayes | 18 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Jake LaRavia | 18 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | - |
| Rui Hachimura | 17 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Luke Kennard | 13 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 9-19 | 3-8 | 7-10 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 22 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 33 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 32 | 7-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 32 | 8-19 | 4-10 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 11 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio * | 19 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Norman Powell | 32 | 7-13 | 1-5 | 5-5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 13 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 20 | 7-11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Dru Smith | 15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 15 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
* = starter