Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Charlotte Hornets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 33.1% | 66.9% | +3.9 | ✓ (26.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Charlotte Hornets +30 (136-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell * | 30 | 7-17 | 1-4 | 2-6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 10 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 30 | 5-11 | 1-2 | 9-9 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 19 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 27 | 3-10 | 0-6 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 27 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 7-8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 6 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 26 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 23 | 3-9 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 20 | 6-12 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 19 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 14 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Dru Smith | 8 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Jahmir Young | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Vladislav Goldin | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball * | 33 | 11-22 | 4-12 | 4-5 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 23 | - |
| Miles Bridges * | 31 | 6-12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Moussa Diabaté * | 31 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 21 | - |
| Brandon Miller * | 26 | 6-15 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 6 | - |
| Kon Knueppel * | 23 | 8-14 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 15 | - |
| Coby White | 20 | 8-15 | 3-9 | 5-6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 15 | - |
| Grant Williams | 18 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Sion James | 17 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Josh Green | 14 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 14 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Tre Mann | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Pat Connaughton | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Xavier Tillman | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter