Model Predictions
| Model | Orlando Magic | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | β |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | β |
| Margin | 38.2% | 61.8% | +2.6 | β (6.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | β |
| Efficiency | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | β |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | β |
| Log Adjusted | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | β |
| Points Off/Def | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | β |
Actual: Miami Heat -4 (117-121). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero * | 37 | 8-14 | 1-3 | 10-10 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 24 | - |
| Jalen Suggs * | 34 | 6-17 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 6 | - |
| Wendell Carter Jr. * | 34 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Desmond Bane * | 34 | 8-17 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 10 | - |
| Tristan da Silva * | 31 | 5-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Noah Penda | 19 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Jamal Cain | 18 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Jevon Carter | 16 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Moritz Wagner | 13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 38 | 6-15 | 2-7 | 6-10 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 17 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 35 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 5-5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 31 | 4-14 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 27 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 18 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 25 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Norman Powell | 31 | 7-15 | 1-5 | 5-5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 9 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 30 | 9-16 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 16 | - |
| Kasparas JakuΔionis | 18 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter