Model Predictions
| Model | Washington Wizards | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 8.8% | 91.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.9% | 82.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 5.7% | 94.3% | +15.4 | ✓ (5.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 27.1% | 72.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 13.3% | 86.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 12.0% | 88.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 12.0% | 88.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 17.7% | 82.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +21 (150-129). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Washington Wizards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Riley * | 39 | 6-13 | 4-7 | 6-7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 16 | - |
| Bub Carrington * | 35 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Bilal Coulibaly * | 34 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 16 | - |
| Tre Johnson * | 22 | 7-12 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Alex Sarr * | 19 | 12-19 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 17 | - |
| Anthony Gill | 25 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Jaden Hardy | 23 | 5-12 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 4 | - |
| Justin Champagnie | 18 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Sharife Cooper | 14 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -1 | - |
| Tristan Vukcevic | 6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 41 | 20-43 | 7-22 | 36-43 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 83 | 51 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis * | 29 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | - |
| Myron Gardner * | 25 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 24 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 4-5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 24 | 5-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 27 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | - |
| Dru Smith | 22 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 22 | 6-7 | 3-4 | 3-3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 18 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 18 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Trevor Keels | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Vladislav Goldin | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter