Model Predictions
| Model | Detroit Pistons | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 68.8% | 31.2% | - | β |
| Bradley-Terry | 68.6% | 31.4% | - | β |
| Margin | 65.8% | 34.2% | -3.6 | β (14.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | β |
| Efficiency | 68.4% | 31.6% | - | β |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.6% | 36.4% | - | β |
| Log Adjusted | 63.6% | 36.4% | - | β |
| Points Off/Def | 53.9% | 46.1% | - | β |
Actual: Miami Heat +11 (121-110). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham * | 35 | 9-18 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 15 | - |
| Jalen Duren * | 26 | 10-12 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 18 | - |
| Tobias Harris * | 24 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Duncan Robinson * | 23 | 1-7 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Marcus Sasser * | 19 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Isaiah Stewart | 22 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Kevin Huerter | 21 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Ronald Holland II | 18 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Daniss Jenkins | 15 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Javonte Green | 15 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Chaz Lanier | 8 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Paul Reed | 5 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Bobi Klintman | 4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 7-17 | 4-10 | 6-6 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 22 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 32 | 3-10 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 30 | 8-16 | 4-8 | 5-6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 18 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 24 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Myron Gardner * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 29 | 6-17 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 25 | 6-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Dru Smith | 22 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Kasparas JakuΔionis | 21 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Vladislav Goldin | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Trevor Keels | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter