Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Charlotte Hornets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 33.1% | 66.9% | +3.9 | ✗ (11.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Charlotte Hornets -8 (120-128). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 38 | 10-26 | 0-5 | 4-5 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 16 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 37 | 11-20 | 8-10 | 3-3 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 32 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 28 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 26 | 5-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 12 | - |
| Myron Gardner * | 16 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 31 | 8-13 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 12 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 30 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Dru Smith | 17 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 12 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kon Knueppel * | 33 | 9-14 | 6-10 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 17 | - |
| Brandon Miller * | 33 | 7-12 | 3-5 | 5-5 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 28 | - |
| LaMelo Ball * | 32 | 7-22 | 5-15 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 4 | - |
| Moussa Diabaté * | 31 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 | - |
| Miles Bridges * | 27 | 5-13 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | - |
| Grant Williams | 18 | 4-8 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 16 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Coby White | 16 | 4-11 | 1-6 | 4-5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Josh Green | 13 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Sion James | 13 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
* = starter