Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Lakers | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 33.4% | 66.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.1% | 69.9% | +4.6 | ✓ (2.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 31.0% | 69.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.0% | 68.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.0% | 68.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.8% | 66.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +7 (120-113). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Dončić * | 40 | 11-24 | 3-10 | 2-4 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 22 | - |
| Austin Reaves * | 38 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 20 | - |
| LeBron James * | 33 | 7-11 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 21 | - |
| Marcus Smart * | 32 | 3-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | - |
| Deandre Ayton * | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Rui Hachimura | 28 | 6-9 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Jaxson Hayes | 27 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 16 | - |
| Luke Kennard | 20 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Jake LaRavia | 10 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | - |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Braun * | 39 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Jamal Murray * | 38 | 8-17 | 5-9 | 7-7 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 20 | - |
| Nikola Jokić * | 37 | 10-15 | 0-1 | 8-8 | 12 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 31 | - |
| Julian Strawther * | 28 | 6-10 | 2-5 | 4-5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 9 | - |
| Zeke Nnaji * | 23 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Bruce Brown | 29 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 25 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 4-5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Jonas Valančiūnas | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Tyus Jones | 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter