Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | β |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | β |
| Margin | 53.2% | 46.8% | -0.7 | β (10.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | β |
| Efficiency | 62.5% | 37.5% | - | β |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.1% | 41.9% | - | β |
| Log Adjusted | 58.1% | 41.9% | - | β |
| Points Off/Def | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | β |
Actual: Miami Heat +10 (115-105). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson * | 39 | 7-16 | 0-1 | 6-12 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 16 | - |
| Kevin Durant * | 37 | 12-20 | 2-8 | 6-6 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 26 | - |
| Reed Sheppard * | 35 | 5-14 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Tari Eason * | 35 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 14 | - |
| Alperen Sengun * | 34 | 6-14 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 6 | - |
| Dorian Finney-Smith | 15 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Clint Capela | 13 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Jeff Green | 11 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Aaron Holiday | 8 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Josh Okogie | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Isaiah Crawford | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 9-17 | 3-5 | 3-6 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 19 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 34 | 6-12 | 1-5 | 7-8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 13 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 33 | 8-12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 8 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 31 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 25 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 28 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 24 | 7-12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 6 | - |
| Kasparas JakuΔionis | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 8 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Dru Smith | 7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
* = starter