Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.4% | 32.6% | - | β |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | β |
| Margin | 75.9% | 24.1% | -6.3 | β (17.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | β |
| Efficiency | 62.4% | 37.6% | - | β |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.9% | 38.1% | - | β |
| Log Adjusted | 62.0% | 38.0% | - | β |
| Points Off/Def | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | β |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks +11 (128-117). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelle Larsson * | 35 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 8-19 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 11 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 29 | 6-14 | 3-8 | 11-14 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 13 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 28 | 5-12 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 21 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 28 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 18 | - |
| Tyler Herro | 26 | 5-17 | 3-9 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 3 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 21 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 18 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Kasparas JakuΔionis | 10 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Dru Smith | 6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Porter Jr. * | 36 | 11-20 | 2-4 | 8-8 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 28 | - |
| Ryan Rollins * | 36 | 9-16 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 13 | - |
| AJ Green * | 27 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Kyle Kuzma * | 24 | 7-16 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 6 | - |
| Myles Turner * | 18 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Jericho Sims | 29 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 17 | - |
| Bobby Portis | 24 | 8-14 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 9 | - |
| Ousmane Dieng | 22 | 4-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 14 | - |
| Cam Thomas | 19 | 2-10 | 0-4 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - |
* = starter