Model Predictions
| Model | Memphis Grizzlies | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.6% | 93.4% | - | β |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.4% | 73.6% | - | β |
| Margin | 14.8% | 85.2% | +9.6 | β (6.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.7% | 66.3% | - | β |
| Efficiency | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | β |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | β |
| Log Adjusted | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | β |
| Points Off/Def | 34.4% | 65.6% | - | β |
Actual: Miami Heat +16 (136-120). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Wells * | 27 | 10-13 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 16 | - |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper * | 25 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 | - |
| Walter Clayton Jr. * | 25 | 4-11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Taylor Hendricks * | 24 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Ty Jerome * | 22 | 6-16 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 11 | - |
| Javon Small | 25 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 11 | - |
| GG Jackson | 25 | 11-17 | 1-5 | 5-8 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 22 | - |
| Jahmai Mashack | 22 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Cam Spencer | 20 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | 20 | 7-15 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 12 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelle Larsson * | 34 | 3-7 | 0-4 | 4-6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 28 | 9-10 | 4-4 | 6-6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 28 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 26 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 16 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 26 | 10-16 | 3-8 | 2-7 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 18 | - |
| Kasparas JakuΔionis * | 22 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 22 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Tyler Herro | 22 | 5-15 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 6 | - |
| Dru Smith | 21 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 18 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 6 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Trevor Keels | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter