Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 43.9% | 56.1% | +1.4 | ✗ (32.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 55.3% | 44.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks -31 (97-128). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelle Larsson * | 31 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 27 | 8-14 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 27 | 5-12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 26 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 24 | 5-13 | 2-8 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 6 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 26 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Tyler Herro | 23 | 9-14 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 18 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 18 | 6-15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 16 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Dru Smith | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 2 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker * | 36 | 8-18 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 4 | - |
| Jalen Johnson * | 35 | 6-22 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 16 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Onyeka Okongwu * | 29 | 8-12 | 4-5 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 19 | - |
| Dyson Daniels * | 29 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Zaccharie Risacher * | 23 | 1-8 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| CJ McCollum | 27 | 8-16 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 4 | - |
| Corey Kispert | 23 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Jock Landale | 18 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Mouhamed Gueye | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Keaton Wallace | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter