Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | New Orleans Pelicans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.9% | 39.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.2% | 33.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 69.2% | 30.8% | -4.5 | ✓ (7.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 57.5% | 42.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 71.3% | 28.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 67.9% | 32.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 68.0% | 32.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.0% | 41.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: New Orleans Pelicans -12 (111-123). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 6-19 | 2-9 | 13-17 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 27 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 27 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 27 | 7-15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio * | 26 | 5-14 | 4-12 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 7 | - |
| Myron Gardner * | 22 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 34 | 10-22 | 0-5 | 3-4 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 16 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 25 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Dru Smith | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 17 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saddiq Bey * | 36 | 4-15 | 4-9 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Zion Williamson * | 33 | 12-19 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 9 | - |
| Herbert Jones * | 32 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Derik Queen * | 31 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Trey Murphy III * | 26 | 7-15 | 2-8 | 3-3 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 13 | - |
| Jeremiah Fears | 30 | 6-19 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 14 | - |
| Bryce McGowens | 21 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 7-8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Karlo Matković | 13 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Kevon Looney | 13 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - |
* = starter